AMIT ROY, Group Account Director at Millward Brown, Nigeria was former Director Consumer Research Sub- Sahara Africa and former General Manager, IMRB, Bangladesh. AMIT who joined MB in 2012 has over 19 years of Research experience across Asia and Africa. With vast experience in tracking and new product development studies, he specializes in Emerging markets and has handled several large scale multi country projects across industry types. He shares insight on the impact of opinion polling on political developments in India .
How would you describe market research in developing and Emerging economies especially in a power house like India?
Market research is matured and evolving in markets like India and other Emerging economies. In India for example, market research usage is wide and no longer restricted to only the multinationals. Even small companies, service sector such as banking, and telecom, are heavy users of research. So in India it is an established industry; this has resulted in the formation of a strong regulatory body – the Market Research Society of India which plays an active role in laying down principles and guidelines that research agencies need to comply with. That also lends a sense of credibility and recognition to the industry such that when there is an issue all the agencies can come under the umbrella of the association and take a decision together. Research, like its cousin advertising has also become a sizeable and well recognized industry in India. I think the MR industry is possibly 200 million+ dollars today. The scale of research in India is also staggering; several surveys get done with sample sizes as large as 30,000 + and spread across totally diverse geographies.
As I mentioned earlier, Market Research as an industry has earned a lot of recognition and respect in India; thus there are several academic institutions and universities that have started offering market research as a discipline. So this is also helping agencies to attract talent who think it is a good launching ground to get into main stream marketing and brand management at a later stage. Finally, there is a lot of technology involvement like what we see in the Nigerian market also. The traditional pen and paper has made way for mobile and handheld devices and use of things such as GPS etc.
Is there anything Nigeria can share with India in terms of market research practice?
I think so,definitely. The Nigerian market research industry today is what the Indian MR industry was about 15-20 years back. The industry here is now becoming big. Before now it used to be only multinationals that were using research data but now you see even local Nigerian companies depending on research to take decisions. Technology is also coming in to aid better quality data. Agencies such as our are increasingly using technology to collect real time and better quality data. We are also trying to change our role to be seen more as partners and consultants and not as mere research data suppliers; and all these are happening as Clients become more demanding and evolved. I think the only place where possibly there is a difference is in the area of costs. In the Emerging Markets and India, research is almost half or 1/3 of what it costs to do research in Nigeria. Also market research here is still not seen as an established industry and thus it becomes difficult to attract good talent.
Can you share some insight on opinion polling in India?
Opinion polling in India has always had an air of mystery about them. Opinion polling started in 1980s when newspapers and some of the leading magazines like India Today, Outlook and others started doing opinion polling before elections mainly just to get the sense of mood of the voters. Then came the growth of TV News Channels- they also got into the opinion polling space and it became a huge competition with each of these channels commissioning their own opinion polls to gain viewership and TRP. So the effort has been going on for quite some time and particularly of late there has been a lot of discussion on opinion poll given that this year there was a historic election. Now you also have some market research agencies specializing typically on opinion polling in India.
How does government react to some of the results of these opinion polling?
Right now there is a whole lot of debate going on whether opinion polling should be banned in India. Why? Because there have been past instances where political parties have alleged that opinion polls have been manipulated and rigged by the opposition parties to influence the voters and bias their opinion. So that debate will continue forever. Thus it is likely that a party that is shown as losing in an opinion poll is likely to question the process and start finding loopholes in it. But then opinion poll is just to give a sense of the mood of the voter, so I think the government has said yes, though I think some restrictions are being applied with regards to the timing of the publication of the results etc;. I think it is now mandated that opinion poll results have to be published at least 48 hours prior to the actual election date. In UK for example, the British Polling Council has been formed to ensure the highest standards of full disclosure so that consumers can judge the reliability and validity of the results. Why can’t we have a similar body, mandated by the Election Commission, to establish a code of conduct for polling in the country that could then address the credibility issue?
Prior to the Indian general elections 2014, how rightly did opinion poll surveys predict voting intentions in India?
For this election I think opinion polling started way back in 2013; as I said earlier, there was a whole lot of excitement and hype surrounding this election; in fact this is the first time in the history of Indian elections that a party has come to rule with such a thumping absolute majority meaning they are not dependent on any other political party to form the government. So if you follow the different opinion polls done this time, the accuracy of the prediction started improving as we approached closer to the election dates. In the end I think some of the polls almost predicted the actual number of seats that BJP finally won.
Is there any lesson Nigeria and other developing economies can learn from India’s political experience?
Yes. I think the fact that an established party such as the Congress which was in power for so long was almost decimated and had one of their worst performances ever- and to be replaced by a party that had lost the earlier elections; this in itself is a huge change. The lesson there is that the party that has lost in the election should accept defeat with humility. It is the people’s mandate and that is the strength of a democracy.
Second is that in India elections are no longer individual- oriented. I might not like you as a leader but if your party is doing the right thing I don’t mind supporting the party, so elections go beyond personality.
Third is that elections are fought based on issues- for example, one of the key issues for this election was corruption; there were so many movements that happened in India almost like the Arab Spring. It was a huge anti-corruption drive and BJP took advantage of that.
Finally, this election has shown that elections are not the prerogative of the high and mighty only; several people like you and me – civil servants, professionals etc formed a political party which even went on to win a State election and ruled Delhi for a short while. The Indian population believes that if you have the right intentions you can also get into government and start driving things.
How willing do Indians accept results of opinion poll surveys and their willingness to participate in such polls?
Indians do participate. Some of these opinion polls are conducted with huge sample sizes in excess of 50,000. But one thing we have to remember is that opinion polls are typically done among slightly educated urban people. Historically, however, these are the people whose intention to go and actually vote is lower than their rural counterparts; so what the polls predict and what actually happens can be a mismatch at times. Secondly, if you look at a country like India where 70 percent of the population is rural, it is very difficult to do opinion polling with 70% of your sample in the rural given the huge costs and logistics. So these opinion polls tend to be urban biased and that is why at times there could be issues. But yes, I think these opinion polls do have influence on the voter in the sense that the voter starts thinking whether he is choosing the right party or not. There is a kind of bandwagon effect to identify with the winning party. It also impacts on political parties and makes them to sit up, listen and watch what is happening. Because opinion polling is done before elections, it gives political parties the opportunity to look inward and put things in proper perspectives and be seen in good light before the real election.
What are the low points of opinion polling in India?
The debates that the polls are manipulated will continue. Also the fact that at times it happens that the samples selected might not be fully representative because people will always argue that you cannot be doing opinion poll with a 20,000 sample size in a country of eight hundred million voters but that number is absolutely fine as long as the sample is representative enough. So those are some of the challenges that do happen. Also there’s so much diversity-there are so many zones and states in India and you will be faced with the problem of how to craft the questionnaire, training of the interviewers etc.
How much does religion affect polling in India?
More than religion, caste factors do come into play particularly in some states in the North. There are the higher caste and the lower caste and it has some influence on politics. What happens typically is that people from certain castes may not want to vote for somebody from opposite castes; so those equations do come into play. The other thing in India which also may be a learning lesson for others is that people separate national feelings from local issues. For example, I would vote for a local party that governs my state well as they handle the local issues better and vote for a different National level party when it comes to the National elections.
How have opinion polls helped to shape the political development of the India nation?
I think it had an impact on the voters as well as the politicians; it has made both sides more conscious. For the voter, it has made him reassess if he’s doing the right thing and if he is voting the right party. It has increased the willingness for people to exercise their franchise. Perhaps this consciousness was what made the voter turnout in the 2014 general elections higher than the previous years. Politicians have also become more conscious of the moral responsibility entrusted upon them.
Has there been any hard stance by the government over authenticity of polling result in India?
What happens in India is that market research agencies will independently not do the polling. They will be commissioned by a news channel or TV channel to do it. So if there is an issue then the TV channel or news channel will have to step in because they engaged the market research agency. This year there was an issue involving two research agencies over the allegation that they were doctoring the results. Then there was an independent investigation and it was discovered that the allegation was actually false. So those cases do happen but the Election Commission and other regulatory bodies do step in to resolve these.
Do you think best practices are employed in conducting opinion polls in India?
I think so because if I look at the results this year- they were pretty much accurate and bang on target. Not only that, almost all the polls predicted that BJP would come to power.
Pollster predicted the emergence of Prime Minister Modi and there were no surprises…How does this make you feel?
I think it has been a very good change; India has had several problems of late that were disturbing; people were desperate for a change and hopefully the new Government would take the country to the next level. It seems to have started on a good note; we have begun the journey with Mangalayaan, the first ever indigenously built mission to Mars which actually cost India cheaper to build than the budget for a Hollywood movie!
Future of marketing research in Nigeria
Very exciting, to say the least. The industry is growing; all the big players are here. Over the last 9 years, I have seen an increasing interest even amongst local companies in doing research and they have started appreciating the value of consumer insights and feedback over gut feel. Clients have also started becoming demanding and agencies are being pushed to adopt global practices and deliver high quality data; so gone are the days when Nigeria was looked at separately in one corner doing its own small things. Technology is also playing a big role in the industry these days; agencies like us are also being seen as playing more of a consultative role helping companies grow in their business. So I think the future of research is extremely interesting and bright in Nigeria. It is a growing industry and it will continue to grow.
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